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SHIFT THE
COSTS:
THE FUTURE
OUTLOOK

AVIATION NEEDS TO INTERNALIZE ITS EXTERNAL COSTS

“The reason I joined Neste can be summed up in one word: purpose. We made a bet on sustainable jet fuel before it became a hot topic – and now that bet is giving us the opportunity to change aviation. SAF adoption is one of the many pathways to a decarbonized planet – and we only get one shot at it.”

Klaas Pel, Head of Renewable Aviation Regulation, Neste

Klaas Pel 260x260

Key Take-Aways

  1. Countries in Asia and beyond are looking not at the American model, but at the EU's
  2. Legislation is on track for Net Zero – but there’s only one chance to get it right
  3. Decarbonization needs many initiatives to work – and SAF adoption is just one
  4. Fuels won’t come in one flavor: eKerosene will play a role, as may renewable hydrogen and electricity
  5. Ticket prices will start to reflect the real cost of traveling by air – with no other option

It’s a hopeful vision – informed by decades of experience among the airlines, airport operators, and regulatory bodies of the EU and how they work within a global context. Best of all, public perception is along for the ride. As SAF adoption ramps up worldwide, expect to see the Neste name attached to a cleaner, more sustainable future for aviation fuel.

Read the Full Interview

The legal environment of SAF is a patchwork of regulations, mandates, and incentives – and Neste knows how it’s stitched together. The former Finnish state refinery is the world leader in renewable fuels, with its Neste MY Sustainable Aviation Fuel™ capable of reducing emissions by up to 80% – and just as importantly, it’s available today. With new partnerships and refineries expanding around the world, it plans to increase its production capacity of SAF from 100,000 tonnes in 2020 to over 1.5m tons per year by the end of 2023. With adoption of SAF driven so deeply by governments, negotiating the political landscape is the job of Klaas Pel.

With over 25 years of public policy experience at places like the European Commission and Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, he offers a 360° view of some political and legal factors driving SAF take-up.

WHERE THERE’S A WILL, THERE’S A WAY
The timeline to Net Zero differs by jurisdiction, but the EU’s Fit for 55 – a push to reduce GHG emissions 55% by 2030 – stands out for two reasons. First, there’s genuine political will to get it done – the European Commission’s set of staggered proposals, aiming to turn the planet’s clock back to 1990 levels of CO2eqs, provide a clear benchmark and legal requirements (called ReFuelEU) for airlines to adopt sustainable fuel, with blends reaching 63% by 2050.

But there’s a second reason: the EU is influencing policy beyond its own borders. The UK, while no longer an EU member state, is likely to replicate EU legislation, with its air transport market deeply intertwined with Europe. In the Asia Pacific region countries are attentively following the European discussions; for example, Japan and New Zealand are setting SAF blending legislation. Japan is mandating a 10% SAF blend by 2030 – although some countries don’t like that word “mandate”, preferring “incentive scheme”.

0 % sustainable fuels
blending mandate by 2050
- ReFuelEU
SAF Study interview breaker 5

AN INCENTIVIZED SHIFT
On a ten-year timescale – barring unknown technological breakthroughs – this means all airlines will use SAF blends or risk losing their licenses to operate and grow. The EU’s ripple effect on the rest of the world means a more level playing field, as SAF starts to become the new normal and the opportunity to “game the system” via third countries vanishes. While Europe’s ETS, or Emissions Trading System (the world’s largest carbon trading system), is a positive, free allowances will be phased out by 2027, creating further incentives to reduce in-sector emissions with greater SAF use.

Klaas Pel; “It’s long been known that aviation has not internalized its external costs, with jet fuel largely exempted from fuel taxes and levies. Which means all taxpayers are subsidizing the 1% who fly. It’s likely the era of cheap air travel is over – and future ticket prices will reflect environmental costs more realistically, on the principle: the polluter pays.”

LISTEN TO JONATHAN WOOD, NESTE DISCUSS
"THE NESTE SAF JOURNEY: FROM VISION TO PRODUCTION"
WITH SYLVAIN VERDIER IN OUR SAF SPECIALS PODCAST

LISTEN TO SAF SPECIALS PODCAST

RELIABLE STRUCTURES AT A REALISTIC COST
A world where harmonized regulation creates a level playing field, with a reliable infrastructure for supply and blending, and where prices properly account for costs. That’s Klass Pel’s vision. And an increasing percentage of the traveling public is starting to agree with him, sharing the perception that cheap air travel is too expensive for the planet.

Legislation is on track for Net Zero
- but there's only one chance
to get it right

A HARMONIZED REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
Klaas’ view of a harmonized regulatory environment may be the core enabler of SAF adoption, allowing the airline industry to evolve without contributing to unsustainable climate change. But of course, he’s far from complacent.