“Aviation suffers from a ‘visible impact’ problem: thousands of people have been making huge efforts for decades, but until now the results have been less obvious to the public than with (say) electric cars. This is changing – and it’s ramping up fast.”
Alastair Blanshard, Sustainable Aviation Lead, ICF
So, things are moving in the right direction – but to enable aviation to continue serving a growing global population, achieving 5-6% SAF blends before 2030 is key. Airlines can influence policy by viewing their emissions over the whole economic lifecycle – and organizations like ICF are there to help.
Read the Full Interview
The 9,000+ professionals of consultancy firm ICF advise organizations on transformative projects that improve performance – spanning both public and private sectors. Climate and energy are the main part of they do – and leading its sustainable aviation practice is UK-based Alastair Blanshard.
An aeronautical engineer and Chartered Financial Analyst by training, Alastair looks at our low-carbon future from a whole-of-lifecycle view, including data far from the linear value chain. He also has views on how mandates and incentives should address who pays for the SAF transformation, seeing a critical breakpoint around 2030.
A DISCONNECT IN PERSPECTIVES
Aviation emissions don’t start and end with the flight. The passenger travels to the airport; takes a taxi to a hotel; goes out on the town at night. But these factors are also a positive for the broader economy. A flight not taken deprives businesses of income, city budgets of tax revenue, investments of a sound business case. Seen in this context, the truth emerges: airlines are net contributors to the economy, enabling outcomes that outweigh their carbon footprints.
In reality, aviation is a highly taxed industry, not an undertaxed one. In the UK, Airline Passenger Duty alone brings in GBP 3.5bn, OR 0.1% of the national income, with additional revenue from the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Yet little of that revenue is reinvested in making air travel greener. That’s why it’s vital to see SAF in its broader economic context: availability versus offtake, investable projects, reliable incentive timescales, and the bigger question of who should pay – the industry, the customer, or society as a whole?
With the USA’s IRA guaranteeing the Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) only to 2027 and the EU mandating up to 6% SAF by the decade’s end, 2030 represents a key date. If aviation can hit targets by 2030, the growth it enables should be secure. If not, Western governments may explicitly limit that growth by capping air travel itself – that means fewer flights, sparser route maps, and more people staying at home. With an impact on human nature: it will be harder to visit far-flung friends, do business overseas, and experience different cultures and the interplay of fresh ideas.
A SEAMLESS AND STREAMLINED POLICY STACK
To reach aviation’s 2030 targets, the industry must balance four challenges: availability of SAF, reliability of value delivered, dependable investment timescales, and fairness to stakeholders. That’s the model ICF uses: optimizing multiple cost centers along the whole value chain, giving its clients deeper insight into their true position in a low-carbon economy. When models fully account for both GHG impact and value creation, policymaking will have a better base for decisions – setting the scene for a smoother ride to 2050 and beyond.
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GLOBALLY ALIGNED AGREEMENTS ON DATA
Alastair see harmonized carbon schemes like CORSIA as the future – an “incredible” framework with no equivalent in any other industry. But there’s a contrast to be closed. The front-loaded incentives of the USA’s IRA are kickstarting frenzied activity, but guarantees are short-term. The EU’s ETS gives longer-term clarity, but with fewer upfront reasons to act now. Success by 2030 means these world views merging – and ICF is hopeful this will happen.
AVIATION HAS A POSITIVE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE WORLD
Aviation isn’t a discrete sector: it links together countless others – perhaps more than any other area of the economy. Making sense of all relevant information isn’t a job airlines can do alone. But people in the industry should be aware of how much positive economic impact their business have on the world … and plan their strategies accordingly.
