“To date, the air travel sector has seen a doubling of passenger numbers every 15 years. But not any more. Growth rates of 4-5% are unsustainable; not every flight is a necessary flight. The SAF era will help match market demand to the planet’s resources”
Patrick Edmond, Managing Director, Altair Advisory
Patrick’s picture, while less optimistic than many in the sustainable aviation sector, may turn out to be more realistic – the route to Net Zero is complex and bumpy, with many moving parts that sometimes conflict. But a move to 10% SAF by 2032 seems achievable, with airports like his own local hub Shannon thinking even further ahead.
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Ireland’s Shannon Airport is something of a fuel hub, with operators enjoying 24/7 hydrant fuel, a 33,000-tonnes tank farm, and its own fuel jetty welcoming ships up to 6,500dwt. Among its many surrounding businesses is Altair Advisory, where aviation consultant Patrick Edmond proposes data-driven commercial solutions for reducing emissions industrywide.
In recent years, Patrick has focused on sustainable air travel – and believes that while Net Zero is possible, a range of mindsets and models have to change first. Here’s a summary of his thoughts, from an economics and environmental perspective.
EMISSIONS AT 35,000ft
A raw statistic like air transport accounting for 1.9% of global CO2eqs doesn’t tell the whole story. Emissions at 35,000ft affect the planet differently to those released at sea level, yet data doesn’t reflect this. While just three years ago, airlines were touting ”sustainability” initiatives such as removing paper inflight magazines or using more efficient light bulbs – basically rounding errors compared to fuel. The biggest change in recent years: jet fuel’s contribution to climate change is now a mainstream topic, with SAF’s potential recognized.
But this increased attention has had some second-order effects, not all positive. Under CORSIA – an attempt to define a global aviation emissions reduction scheme – the cost of offsets to ”decarbonize” a transatlantic ticket is estimated at USD 3, when the reality is closer to USD 60. With offsets forecast to be a far bigger part of Net Zero’s balance sheet than SAF by 2050, that’s a problem – and the USA’s recent Inflation Reduction Act may make things worse for a time, with its web of tax breaks and incentives distorting things further.
WHERE IT’S GOING: FULLY COSTED FLYING
There are no two ways about it: aviation needs more SAF. But with limited feedstock sources – more so in the EU than the USA – more doesn’t automatically mean better; road and marine biofuel producers are chasing the same bio-based and waste-based feedstock sources. Hence Patrick’s goal: to create routes and solutions that address “real” environmental issues while keeping air travel on a sound commercial footing.
On a ten-year timescale, as older aircraft “age out” with market demand for superjumbos like the A380 and B747 fading, the scene is set for higher blends of SAF (to 50% and beyond) and a more optimized air route network, with higher ticket prices leading to lower passenger growth – likely under 2%. The air transport market of the 2030s will perhaps involve fewer aircraft, flying fewer routes – and thankfully, fewer CO2eqs from aviation worldwide.
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TO FIND OUT IF
AIRPORTS AND AIRLINES ARE READY FOR SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL
DELIVERING LONG-TERM
America’s IRA carries many short-term advantages, but Patrick believes the EU approach of steadily increased blending mandates (among others) will deliver greater long-term sustainability. The ideal: the combination of a more harmonized legal framework worldwide, SAF as the New Normal at blends of 50%, and optimized passenger routes that enable more efficient flying will meet Net Zero goals for aviation. But he cautions: it’s a long way away.
A GREENER COMMERCIAL FLIGHT
Endless growth means endless problems for the environment – which means the past pattern of 4-5% upticks per year has to stop. But smart thinking on routes and segments as SAF blends increase mean passengers can enjoy the same choice of destinations on a greener commercial basis.
