Meeting the new energy reality by advancing clean fuels and energy security

The global energy transition is facing a critical challenge, balancing energy security, affordability and sustainability. In a world shaped by multiple overlapping crises, the question we must ask ourselves is: how can the need for energy security and resilience advance the fuel transition?

The transition to cleaner fuels is moving forward despite rising interest rates, policy uncertainty and project delays. While fossil fuels reached record highs in 2025, ambitions to create secure energy systems and to lead the cleantech industry are driving progress, and clean energy and fuels continue to gain ground in long-term outlooks and investment flows. 

Mixed trends in the transition

The global picture of the energy transition today is complex. There are both indicators of slowdown and progression. 

Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty affect global markets. Higher interest rates make CAPEX‑intensive projects, such as clean fuel facilities, more expensive. Relatively low oil prices and policy uncertainty are further challenging business cases in the short term, contributing to delays in final investment decisions (FIDs) and, in some cases, project cancellations across regions. 

Consumption of oil, gas and coal, as well as nuclear output, reached record highs in 2024. Driven largely by China, global coal demand has grown 50% faster than natural gas demand since 2019, contributing significantly to continued growth in energy‑related emissions (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2025). 

At the same time, renewable power continues to expand rapidly. Led by solar PV, it is the fastest‑growing major energy source, and in most places, electricity from renewable energy sources is cheaper than from oil (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2025). 

A challenging moment but not a change of course

Despite headwinds, the long-term direction of the transition remains intact, and it is moving forward. In the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025, clean fuels and energy sources grow across all scenarios. In their Net Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE), low-emissions fuels rise from 5% of total final consumption today to around 10% in 2035 and 20% in 2050. 

Investment trends support this. Global energy-sector investment was projected at USD 3.3 trillion in 2025, up 2% from 2024. Around USD 2.2 trillion of it for renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification, versus USD 1.1 trillion for oil, gas and coal (IEA, Energy Investment 2025). 

In clean fuels, project pipelines are maturing. The Hydrogen Council notes that projects with the strongest business cases are likely to advance, while less viable projects are cancelled. Around 3.6 mtpa of binding offtake is already in place globally, representing about 60% of committed clean hydrogen project capacity. Looking ahead to 2030, around 8 mtpa of clean hydrogen demand could materialize in the EU, US, Japan and Korea – if existing policies are implemented and enforced.

Topsoe's role in advancing the fuel transition

Meeting current and future energy challenges requires a diverse range of technologies and solutions. At Topsoe, we help drive the energy transition forward by enabling decarbonization where it is most difficult to electrify, in energy-intensive industries and long-distance transportation. We deliver technologies and solutions that make low-emissions fuels viable at industrial scale, spanning renewable fuels, low-carbon fuels and e-fuels.  

One third of the current renewable diesel and SAF operating capacity is based on Topsoe technology, and we continue to win new and exciting projects. ANCAP’s La Teja Refinery in Montevideo, Uruguay, is one of them. We will deliver our HydroFlex® technology, proprietary equipment and catalysts to enable the production of 3,000 barrels of SAF and renewable diesel per day. The plant is expected to reach FID in 2027, with operations due to commence in 2030. 

Another example is NXTClean Fuels’ new SAF and renewable diesel facility at Port Westward, U.S. It will utilize Topsoe’s HydroFlex™, SynCOR™ and H2bridge™ technologies and catalyst to produce up to 50,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel and SAF. Subject to a final investment decision, this facility when operational will be the largest greenfield SAF project in the U.S. and is expected to be operational by 2029. 

We are helping enable the ramp up of green hydrogen production with our Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cell (SOEC) manufacturing facility that we inaugurated in Denmark in October 2025. With an initial capacity of 500MW and the option to scale further, it is the largest facility of its kind in Europe. By producing more hydrogen with less renewable energy, the factory will accelerate the fuel transition while strengthening energy security, industrial competitiveness and progress toward global climate targets. 

Our SOEC technology will be used to deliver e-SAF at Carbon Neutral Fuels’ Project Starling in Workington, UK and e-methanol at Forestal del Atlántico’s Triskelion project in Galicia, Spain.

Cleantech ambition and energy security are redrawing the map

Many countries and regions remain committed to the energy transition, driven by a combination of climate ambition, industrial strategy and the need for greater energy security and resilience.  

Different countries are using different levers. Fuel‑importing regions tend to emphasize renewables and energy efficiency, while others focus more on ensuring sufficient supplies of traditional fuels (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2025). 

In the EU, legally binding climate targets, growing renewables and declining emissions indicate continued commitment, even as high energy prices, permitting delays and competitiveness concerns constrain pace. 

Large‑scale programs in India, China, the Middle East and Latin America are driving substantial investments in clean energy and fuels. In China, long‑term industrial policies – including low‑cost financing, land access, manufacturing support and clear deployment targets – have created the world’s largest and most integrated clean energy supply chain. China leads in both manufacturing and deployment, installing more solar and wind capacity each year than any other country, often exceeding the combined additions of several major economies. China is also the driving force in electrolyzer deployment and manufacturing, accounting for about 65% of global installed capacity and capacity that has reached FID, and nearly 60% of global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity (IEA, Global Hydrogen Review 2025). 

This policy‑driven build‑out has pushed down global technology costs and enabled rapid scaling of cleantech. At the same time, it has sharpened focus in other regions on supply‑chain concentration and competitiveness, reinforcing efforts to diversify production and secure access to critical technologies.

Looking ahead

As the world confronts the complexities of the energy transition, the path forward demands innovation, unwavering collaboration and scalable solutions. At Topsoe, we are committed to driving this transformation – delivering proven technologies that enable industries to transition toward net zero while fueling innovation, economic prosperity and energy security along the way.

This article is part of our New Energy Reality Series. Explore the full series here.